47 Days Out: Harris Holds National Lead, Faces Tight Race in Battleground States
Last week, I noted that as we neared the presidential debate, former President Donald Trump had begun to narrow the gap in Vice President Kamala Harris’s post-convention lead. The debate, a pivotal moment for both campaigns, left many wondering whether Trump could maintain his momentum. However, with his widely regarded poor performance, new questions have emerged: Has Trump’s resurgence hit a wall? With just 47 days remaining until election day, the spotlight now turns to Harris. Will her campaign seize this opportunity to lock in the lead and secure victory, or will the race remain competitive in these final weeks?
I will examine the latest national polling data in this post to see if Harris has experienced a post-debate bounce. I will also look closely at state polling in the seven key battleground states, where the true fight for the Electoral College is taking place.
The National Race:
Using national polls conducted between June 27, 2024, and September 8, 2024, from the ABC News/FiveThirtyEight database, I have created two graphs to illustrate the current state of the national race. Each graph includes a scatterplot displaying predicted support for each candidate from every poll, complemented by a LOESS regression trend line for each candidate. The first graph depicts the two-way race, while the second presents the multicandidate race.
Both graphs indicate that Harris has gained a slight lead since last week’s presidential debate. More notably, the lower graph reveals a steady decline in support for third-party candidates following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race and Harris’s subsequent securing of the Democratic nomination.
It is important to note that most of these polls were conducted before the second assassination attempt on Trump, which introduces some uncertainty about its potential impact on the race dynamics. As of now, Harris holds a lead of approximately 3.5 points in the national race.
However, a national lead does not always translate into an Electoral College victory. To understand whether Harris’s lead could secure her win in the Electoral College, we need to examine the state polling data in the key battleground states.
Battleground States: Graphs and Analysis
In the 2020 election, Biden achieved a decisive victory by securing 306 electoral college votes, notably winning key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—states that had supported Trump in 2016. Biden’s campaign also managed to flip traditionally Republican strongholds like Georgia and Arizona, marking a significant shift in the electoral landscape.
For the 2024 election, the Biden campaign focused its strategy on retaining the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. On the other hand, Trump, who held narrow leads in the Sun Belt states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina up until late June, needed to win at least one of the Blue Wall states to achieve an Electoral College win.
Harris’s entry into the race has upended Trump’s campaign strategy. Her candidacy has mobilized voters of color and diminished the appeal of third-party candidates, particularly in the diverse Sun Belt states. Most analysts currently estimate that Harris has secured 226 electoral college votes, including one from Nebraska. Trump has secured 219 electoral college votes, including one from Maine. Both Nebraska and Maine allocate one electoral vote each to the candidate who wins the majority in individual congressional districts.
With 93 electoral votes up for grabs, let us take a closer look at how Harris and Trump are faring in the battleground states. I will begin by analyzing the Sun Belt states and then shift focus to the Blue Wall states. These graphs are based on polls conducted in these key states between July 25, 2024, and September 18, 2024. They are archived in the ABC News/FiveThirtyEight database. Each graph includes a scatterplot displaying predicted support for each candidate from every poll, complemented by a LOESS regression trend line for each candidate.
While Trump has maintained narrow leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, the margins remain very tight. Nevada stands out as a strong point for the Harris campaign, which currently holds a slight lead in the polls. If Trump were to win Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, his projected Electoral College total would rise to 262—8 votes short of the 270 needed for victory. Conversely, if Harris secures Nevada, her total would increase to 232.
Let us turn our attention to the Blue Wall states.
Although the race remains tight, the data shows Harris gaining momentum in key battlegrounds like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where her lead is expanding. In Wisconsin, Harris holds a modest but steady advantage, though Trump has recently closed the gap. If Harris secures both Michigan and Pennsylvania, along with Nevada, her Electoral College total would rise to 266, putting Trump in a must-win position for Wisconsin to claim victory.
However, this is just one possible scenario. Both candidates still have multiple paths to victory, and with such close margins in battleground states, shifts in voter support or new developments could change the outcome. Ultimately, the race is too close to call, with the final days of the campaign set to be crucial.
Concluding thoughts:
In conclusion, the race remains exceptionally close as we enter the final stretch. Harris has gained a slight advantage in national polls following her debate performance, but the fight for the Electoral College is still wide open. Battleground state analysis reveals tight contests and shifting support, with both candidates holding multiple paths to victory. The outcome will hinge on their success in these pivotal states. As new developments arise and campaign strategies evolve, the dynamics of the race are likely to keep shifting. For now, the result remains too close to call, making every remaining day crucial.