Are Minority Voters Abandoning Joe Biden?
On March 2, 2024, The New York Times published the outcomes of its poll conducted in collaboration with Siena College’s Research Institute. While analysts at FiveThirtyEight ranked this poll as the most reliable, its results were met with skepticism from the Biden campaign and its most ardent supporters.
The poll not only predicted Trump leading Biden by 48% to 43% but it also revealed that the former president was garnering a larger-than-expected portion of votes from African American and Latino voters. Additionally, the poll found that “Biden is securing the allegiance of only 83 percent of his 2020 supporters, with 10 percent indicating their current preference for Trump.” Conversely, the poll asserted that Trump enjoyed the backing of 97% of voters who supported him in 2020.
In response to these findings, John Burn-Murdoch from the Financial Times sought to investigate whether The New York Times/Siena poll results might have been influenced by polling inaccuracies, as suggested by certain commentators and Democratic strategists. Utilizing recent Gallup data, insights gleaned from previous American National Election Studies and Cooperative Election Study surveys, and insights provided by Ismail K. White and Chryl N. Laird’s academic research, he argued that The New York Times/Siena poll was capturing a possible “racial realignment” of American politics.
Burn-Murdoch’s findings garnered significant attention, although he was not the first to observe this trend. Earlier in the year, Adam Carlson published an analysis in Split Ticket, examining the cross-tabulations of various national polls. By aggregating the responses across different demographic groups, Carlson highlighted a decline in support for Biden among African American, Latino, and young voters.
Are we witnessing a racial realignment, as proposed by Burn-Murdoch or Carlson? This significant question is one I will not delve into here. However, Thomas Edsall’s latest opinion piece in The New York Times offers a comprehensive and insightful analysis. Whether we label this shift as a realignment or something else is not the focus. What is crucial is to recognize that most experts agree Biden is encountering challenges in mobilizing key components of his 2020 coalition.
In this post, I want to explore the voting preferences of white, African American, and Latino voters in previous elections. I also examine Gallup’s recent insights regarding these groups’ political inclinations. This analysis will help us better understand the factors contributing to Biden’s trailing position in recent polls.
In the 2020 presidential election, 66.9% of eligible voters participated, marking the highest turnout in modern American history. Securing 51% of the popular vote, Biden won 306 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 232. these victory margins may appear impressive. However, it is worth noting that Trump lost a few states, such as Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, by margins of less than 1%.
Using exit polls data conducted by Edison Research and aggregated by Cornell University’s Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, the following graph depicts the turnout rates for the three largest ethnic and racial groups in US presidential elections from 2000 through 2020.
With the diminishing proportion of white American voters, political campaigns must allocate increased time and resources to mobilize and turn out African American and Latino voters, who historically participate in elections less frequently than their white counterparts.
Two key factors secured Biden’s victory. First, although the proportion of white voters, who tend to vote Republican in presidential races, decreased from 70% of the electorate in 2016 to 67% in 2020, the Biden campaign successfully narrowed Trump’s winning margin from 20% in 2016 to 17% in 2020.
Another contributing factor was Biden’s strong support among African American and Latino voters. The African American community has traditionally constituted a vital constituency of the Democratic Party, as depicted in the following graph.
Although the majority of Latino voters have consistently leaned towards Democratic presidential candidates since 1980, Republicans have secured the backing of more than a third of these voters in several elections, as illustrated in the following graph.
Despite Biden’s significant margins with these minority groups, Trump managed to increase his support among African American and Latino voters. For instance, Trump expanded his share of the Latino vote by 5 points, rising from 27% to 32%. Similarly, there was a 4% increase in African American voters who cast their ballots for Trump in 2020.
Earlier this year, Gallup published the findings of its Social Series survey, revealing a concerning trend for Democrats across various demographic groups. It is important to note a significant caveat: Gallup’s poll targeted adults rather than registered or likely voters. This is crucial because a substantial portion of eligible voters either abstain from registering or refrain from voting. Nonetheless, these trends underscore the necessity for the Democratic Party to reassess its campaign strategy. While some individuals in these demographics may lean toward the Republican Party, it would be premature to assume this will be the case. In the upcoming 2024 presidential election, with more than two candidates competing for the presidency, there is potential for minority voters to rally behind independent candidates, like Robert F. Kennedy, or to support smaller third-party options, such as the Green or Libertarian parties.
The following graphs summarize the political inclinations of White Americans, African Americans, and Latinos. For simplicity’s sake, the visuals do not illustrate these Americans’ support for the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Considering that Gallup has found that 43% of Americans identify as independents, the trend lines depict Americans who are registered with one of the main political parties or are independents leaning toward one of these parties.
Considering the trends illustrated in these three graphs, it should not come as a total shock to see increasing support for Trump’s candidacy among minority voters. As pointed out by David Leonhardt in his recent Morning Newsletter, the problem is that “Many Democrats have perceived people of color as a homogeneous, reliably progressive bloc, solely defined by their racial identity.” However, these communities exhibit a broad spectrum of ideologies, with numerous African Americans and Latinos feeling disenchanted with the current status quo or failing to resonate with the Democratic Party’s values or agendas.
In conclusion, a thorough examination of exit polls from past presidential elections and Gallup’s findings strongly suggests that current public opinion surveys accurately capture the electorate’s lack of enthusiasm for Biden’s candidacy. While it appears that Trump is likely to increase his level of support among Latinos and African Americans compared to 2020, this does not necessarily indicate that Biden will lose the election. As the saying goes, “trend is not destiny,” implying that the current trajectory of support is not set in stone. Therefore, the Biden campaign has the financial resources and the time to change these dynamics, strategically appealing to these crucial voter demographics.