Thoughts on Kamala Harris's Presidential Run
In my last post, I discussed why President Joe Biden should withdraw from the race. Today, I want to offer some initial thoughts on his decision to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris and her subsequent bid for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination.
The central question on everyone’s mind is whether Harris can defeat former President Donald Trump in November. Early polling suggests she is currently the underdog in this race. While Harris starts her campaign in a relatively strong position compared to most potential nominees, she faces considerable challenges. For instance, she needs to select a running mate in the coming days. Although it appears likely that she will secure the Democratic Party’s nomination, she will need to find ways to unify the party and convince the American electorate to support her candidacy. Additionally, she must establish her own identity separate from Biden’s while addressing the sexist and racist stereotypes that could undermine her campaign.
Democrats are Closing Ranks
It appears that Harris will be the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee. In the first 24 hours after Biden announced the end of his campaign, she has received endorsements from all the Democratic governors, including some who were expected to challenge her, as well as a majority of the members of Congress. Major donors and former party officials have also declared their support.
Former President Barack Obama has yet to endorse her. However, as the number of endorsements continues to grow, he will fall in line within the next few days.
Harris also secured the nomination before the Democratic Party’s 4,000 delegates meet in Chicago on August 19 to select the nominee. According to party rules, the successful candidate needs the support of 1,976 pledged delegates. During the primary, Biden won 3,904 of these delegates. With his withdrawal, these delegates are now free to vote their conscience. NBC News reports that the Vice President has already secured 1,992 delegates.
Harris’s decision to take over for Biden has energized the party. While Democratic donors had withheld their contributions following the president’s disastrous debate, within 24 hours of her announcement, she raised over $80 million. Even more impressive is the 880,000 people who donated $200 each to her campaign.
Her ability to galvanize support from both party leaders and grassroots donors highlights her potential to unify the various factions within the party. All indications suggest that Harris is likely to have a successful convention in Chicago in a few weeks.
Addressing her weaknesses
As I noted, while Harris is consolidating her support within the Democratic Party. Early polling suggests that she is the undergod to win the election. While her candidacy will reenergize Democrats and increase their odds of keeping the White House, protect their majority in the Senate, and retake the House, she will have to address several important challenges.
Harris’s low approval number is a major concern. Using FiveThirtyEight’s polling archive, her current approval is 38%, similar to Biden’s. As I have noted in a previous post, political science research indicates that approval ratings are a reliable predictor of re-election outcomes. This explains why many pundits and political observers questioned Biden’s electability. But does this rule apply to a vice presidential candidate? It is difficult to say. Typically, the vice president secures the nomination by winning a primary, which allows them to distance themselves from their predecessor and establish his or her own agenda.
Biden’s unpopularity stemmed not only from concerns about his age and mental fitness but also from widespread dissatisfaction with his policies, particularly on inflation, immigration, and foreign policy issues. For better or worse, many voters attribute some of these challenges to Harris due to her role as vice president. Her close association with Biden means that any criticism aimed at his administration also reflects on her. Therefore, she needs to confront these issues directly and, when necessary, distance herself to establish her distinct path.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton spent too much time defending the Obama administration’s record instead of advocating for change. Her campaign also assumed that voters’ fears of Trump would drive them to support her. Although she won the national popular vote, she lost several key states by narrow margins. Harris needs to offer a compelling vision for the future that excites Democrats and appeals to independent voters.
Another potential challenge is her ideological bent. Whereas Biden was a moderate Democrat who appealed to independents and some conservatives who despised Trump, Harris tends to be more progressive. Many of the ideas she campaigned in 2019 when she ran for the Democratic Party’s nomination, would appeal to many Democrats. But in a polarized political environment where the winning candidate needs to win a majority of independent voters, her ideology could be a challenge.
One of the benefits of a primary is that it reveals candidates’ weaknesses, giving them a chance to address and correct them. During her failed bid for the presidential nomination, former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard criticized Harris’s record as a prosecutor and California’s Attorney General during an early debate. Harris was slow to respond, which haunted her campaign after that. Her inability to defend her record or articulate a compelling vision for criminal justice reform, one of her main issues, angered many donors and even undermined her support among key demographics, including African American voters.
While I am sure Harris learned a lot from her failed campaign for president and her 2020 run as Biden’s running mate, she remains untested on the larger stage of a general election. Primaries can be divisive, but they do not compare to the intense competition and scrutiny of a general election. The Trump campaign will aggressively attack her record, while an army of conservative social media personalities will spread misinformation and lies to tarnish her reputation. Harris must be prepared to defend her record and effectively counter these attacks while articulating a compelling vision for the future that resonates with voters across the political spectrum.
Her campaign advisers, inherited from Biden’s unsuccessful bid, will need to guide her through the complexities of the general election. However, the question remains: does Harris trust these advisers? Will she seek to include some of her confidants, potentially altering the dynamics of the campaign operations? These concerns are especially pertinent given news reports of internal feuds within Harris’s team and clashes between her staff and Biden’s. While she has raised significant funds and energized Democrats in the last few days, the success of her campaign hinges on her ability to sustain this momentum over the next 104 days. This will be crucial as she works to solidify her position and broaden her appeal to a wider electorate. To navigate the complexities of a general election, Harris must build a cohesive team that can effectively manage internal conflicts and maintain a unified strategy.
The State of the Race:
Before we dive into the current polling data, it’s important to recognize that the most accurate trends in the presidential race will become clearer once we have more quality polls conducted after Biden ended his campaign. Earlier polls attempting to gauge a hypothetical matchup between Harris and Trump may not fully reflect voters’ opinions, as they were based on speculative scenarios.
The graph below illustrates the current state of the presidential race. It includes polls conducted after the presidential debate on June 27, 2024, when calls for Biden to step down began gaining momentum and pollsters started assessing Harris’s chances of defeating Trump in November. The graph comprises a scatterplot displaying the predicted support for each candidate in every poll, accompanied by a trend line for each candidate derived from a LOESS regression model.
Trump currently leads nationally by about 3%. Although the graph indicates a close race, it’s important to note that Democrats need to win the national vote by more than 2% to secure the electoral college, which tends to favor Republicans.
The election is not solely a choice between Harris and Trump; voters also have the option to support third-party candidates. Since there are limited polls assessing this particular aspect of the race, I have not included a graph showing Harris’s performance against a broader field of candidates.
Additionally, regarding Harris’s support in key battleground states, the available polling data is limited. This scarcity makes it challenging to provide a comprehensive analysis of how she is faring in these critical areas.
Questions that Remain Unanswered:
As new polls are published, we will be able to answer the following questions:
Who will she choose as her running mate? Her campaign is currently vetting several candidates, many of whom are white males.
Will Harris narrow the electoral Map? As I mentioned in earlier posts, concerns about Biden’s age and mental fitness following the presidential debate in late June have made states like Virginia and New Hampshire more competitive. Early polls suggest that Harris can retain Virginia, but New Hampshire's less diverse electorate poses a challenge, with a recent poll showing Trump leading Harris by 1%.
How many paths does Harris have to win the electoral college? In recent weeks, polling has shown that Biden’s reelection hopes were tied to his ability to win the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Trump’s leads in the Sun Belt states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina complicated Biden's campaign map. Considering the Blue Wall states are less diverse than the Sun Belt states, which combination of states could Harris win to secure the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the election?
Polling data indicated that Biden struggled to rebuild his 2020 coalition. His handling of the Israeli-Gaza crisis weakened his support among young voters as well as Arab and Muslim voters. Meanwhile, public opinion data showed Trump gaining traction with African American and Latino voters. Can Harris reassure these key segments of the Democratic base? To win, should she pursue Biden’s 2020 coalition or aim to build a coalition similar to Obama’s 2012 run, when he faced a competitive race?
Can Harris reduce Trump’s support among white voters? While Harris might energize and mobilize non-white voters, elections are often decided by the margins. Although the proportion of white voters, who generally lean Republican in presidential races, decreased from 70% of the electorate in 2016 to 67% in 2020, the Biden campaign was able to narrow Trump’s winning margin from 20% in 2016 to 17% in 2020. Biden achieved this by improving on Hillary Clinton’s share of white men. Similarly, Trump made some inroads with white women in 2020. How will Harris’s racial background influence white voters’ decisions?
Can Harris elevate reproductive rights as a key campaign issue? Currently, economic issues, including inflation, and immigration are top concerns for voters. However, access to abortion remains an important issue for many Americans. This is one reason Trump has sought to minimize his exposure to the topic, emphasizing his support for exceptions and removing references to a federal abortion ban from the Republican Party’s platform. Harris has effectively scrutinized Republicans’ positions on this issue, but could she use it to counterbalance her views on immigration, which are currently out of step with many voters?
How enthused are voters with Harris? In closely contested elections, voter enthusiasm plays a crucial role in motivating individuals to turn out to vote. As I noted in my last post:
Opinion surveys indicate that a significant portion of these voters are motivated more by opposition to Trump than by support for Biden. For instance, the most recent The Economist/YouGov poll found that 61% of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are “mostly voting AGAINST Donald Trump” rather than “voting FOR Joe Biden.” In contrast, 80% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are “mostly voting FOR Donald Trump.”
This lack of enthusiasm among Biden’s supporters was a key factor in the push for him to end his campaign. Many of his backers demonstrated little commitment to his candidacy.
The most recent The Economist/YouGov poll, conducted after Biden’s campaign concluded, reveals that only 41% of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are “mostly voting FOR Kamala Harris,” marking a modest 3% increase from Biden’s previous standing. In stark contrast, Trump’s enthusiasm among his voters has surged to 82%. Despite the positive media coverage of Harris taking over Biden’s campaign, the level of voter enthusiasm for her appears to be relatively subdued. This suggests that while Harris’s new role has generated some additional support, it has not significantly shifted the overall enthusiasm compared to Trump’s increasing backing.
In national polls, third-party candidates were projected to capture around 10% of the national vote share, which was impacting Biden in several battleground states. Could Harris attract some of these disaffected voters?
Concluding Thoughts:
In conclusion, Harris faces a critical challenge as she steps into the spotlight. Having been overshadowed by Biden for much of his presidency, she must now define her own identity and priorities for the electorate. While she has supported Biden’s policies as Vice President, her role as the presumptive nominee requires her to present a clear and distinct vision that transcends her online persona, which has been shaped by memes and social media. Over the next few weeks, Harris needs to effectively articulate her own policy positions and differentiate herself from Biden, all while addressing the unique challenges and opportunities of her candidacy.