Biden's Reelection Prospects Amidst the Gaza-Israel Conflict
Could Arab and Muslim American Voters Determine the Outcome of the 2024 Election?
President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign started earlier this year with a speech commemorating the attacks of January 6, 2021. Subsequent campaign events ensued, with Vice President Kamala Harris also taking part, highlighting the administration’s achievements and warning supporters about the impact Republican electoral victories in November could have on women’s access to abortion and their reproductive rights.
Many of Biden’s recent speeches have been interrupted by protesters demanding his administration endorse calls for a cease-fire in the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. During a rally in Northern Virginia, protesters repeatedly interrupted the President, chanting “Genocide Joe”, “Free Palestine” and “Stop Genocide”. A day later, during an event in Washington, DC, commemorating the endorsement by the United Auto Workers, some of the union members in the audience also interrupted Biden’s speech, voicing their discontent with the administration’s Gaza policy.
In South Carolina, the Biden campaign has been actively engaging voters to encourage participation in the upcoming Democratic primary. Campaign officials and several of Biden’s surrogates have acknowledged the growing frustration among African American pastors regarding Biden’s backing of Israel and his reluctance to publicly endorse a cease-fire.
During a political event in Seattle, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi encountered criticism from protesters. In an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash, she suggested that some of the protesters might have received Russian financing. These allegations were quickly and strongly refuted by the Council on American-Islamic Relations.
Biden’s unwavering support for Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and his reluctance to endorse a cease-fire in Gaza has divided the Democratic Party and dampened enthusiasm among his supporters. Consequently, the administration’s stance has also impacted its relationship with Muslim-American and Arab American communities, further complicating efforts to garner their support. Will they turn out for Biden in November?
Based on the 2020 data from the US Religious Census, conducted by the Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies, the American Muslim population is a significant minority in several battleground states. They constitute over 2% of the population in Michigan and Minnesota.
The AP VoteCast found that in the 2020 presidential election “among Muslim voters, 64% supported Biden and 35% supported Trump.” To ensure his reelection, Biden must prioritize the interests of this community. Should Muslim Americans opt to boycott the election or endorse candidates from alternative parties, Biden risks losing pivotal states. For instance, in Arizona, Muslim Americans constitute roughly 1.5% of the population. Biden clinched victory in the state by a margin of fewer than 11,000 votes. Similarly, Trump faced a 12,000-vote deficit in Georgia, where Muslim Americans accounted for approximately 123,000 of the population in 2020. This dynamic also holds for Wisconsin, where Biden’s win margin was 21,000 votes, and Muslim Americans represent 1.2% of the state's population.
According to the American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates conducted by the US Census Bureau, Arab Americans constitute around 2,165,000, representing around 0.67% of the nation’s population.
Before the 2020 presidential elections, a survey commissioned by the Arab American Institute indicated that 59% of Arab American voters supported Biden, while 35% backed Donald Trump. The poll also showed that a minority of Arab Americans, particularly registered independents and young voters, were open to endorsing third-party candidates.
As denoted on the map, Arab Americans in Michigan constitute approximately 2% of the state’s population. In 2016, Trump narrowly secured victory in the state, breaking through Hillary Clinton’s blue wall. An analysis suggests that the Clinton campaign encountered challenges in mobilizing the Arab American vote that year. However, the Biden campaign avoided repeating this mistake in 2020. Despite many Arab Americans favoring Bernie Sanders’s progressive stances over Biden's more moderate views during the 2020 primary, anger with Trump’s policies motivated Arab Americans to turn out to vote in unprecedented numbers. This surge significantly contributed to the Biden campaign’s comfortable victory in Michigan by 154,000 votes.
A survey conducted on behalf of the Arab American Institute shortly after Israel invaded Gaza, following Hamas's attacks on October 7, 2023, sheds light on the Biden campaign's predicament. According to the poll, many Arab Americans have reconsidered their affiliation with the Democratic Party.
The survey revealed two other significant findings. Firstly, Arab Americans' perception of Biden has deteriorated, with his positive rating plummeting “from 74 to 29 in just three years.” Secondly, while the survey indicated that many Arab Americans would contemplate supporting Trump in the election in November, this is improbable given their previous discontent with his Muslim Ban. The primary concern for Democrats remains the 14% of Arab American voters who would support Robert Kennedy Jr. or the 4% who would back Cornel West.
If current polls prove accurate, the upcoming presidential election is poised to be highly contested. Biden currently trails Trump in several battleground states, among them Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin, all of which boasts a small yet significant population of Muslim and Arab American voters. With over 250 days remaining until election day, the Biden campaign has the opportunity to address and reconcile these concerns. However, considering the president’s steadfast backing of Israel and reluctance to exert pressure on Netanyahu to embrace a ceasefire, it becomes challenging to envision how voters within the Muslim and Arab American communities would overlook these decisions and opt to support Biden at the polls. Could these factors contribute to Trump securing the presidency once again? Only time will reveal the outcome.