Three Years After January 6: Over a Third of Americans Question President Biden's 2020 Victory
In most national polls, President Joe Biden is trailing the former president, who will likely secure the Republican nomination in the next weeks.
On January 5, 2024, Biden kicked off his presidential campaign in the Philadelphia suburbs. After a visit to Valley Forge National Historical Park, he gave an impassioned speech commemorating the third anniversary of the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol building. Noting that “Democracy is on the ballot”, Biden argued that Donald Trump and “his MAGA supporters” are a threat to the nation’s democratic values.
During his speech, Biden highlighted the falsehoods propagated by Trump’s supporters regarding voter fraud. He underscored Trump's exhaustive attempts to “overturn the election” through all available “legal avenues,” which ultimately failed. Biden cautioned against Trump's ongoing efforts to "rewrite the facts" of both January 6th and the 2020 election.
Biden’s comments resonate with earlier speeches. In 2022, he delivered a comparable address outside Philadelphia’s Independence Hall. Similarly, remarks honoring Senator John McCain’s legacy, given in Tempe, Arizona last year, shared many of these sentiments.
While Biden’s warnings hold weight, his statements often portray Trump's supporters as a minority within the electorate. Survey data reveals that, even three years after the January 6 attack, Trump's second impeachment, the U.S. House of Representatives’s investigation into the attack, and multiple indictments against Trump, over one-third of Americans still have doubts about the legitimacy of the 2020 election.
Following the conclusion of the presidential elections on November 3, 2020, The weekly The Economist/YouGov Poll surveyed its online panel. Participants were asked to respond to the following question: “Would you say that Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 election, or not?” Respondents had the option to choose between “Biden legitimately won the election” or “Biden did NOT legitimately win the election”.
Given the controversies surrounding the elections, it should not be surprising that only 58% of respondents selected the first of these statements. More poignantly, while 96% of Democrats believed that Biden won the election legitimately, this opinion was only shared by 53% of independents and 18% of Republicans.
As depicted in the graph below, The Economist/YouGov Poll has been consistently posing this question since mid-November 2020. Although the number of Americans disputing the legitimacy of Biden’s victory has declined over time, the latest poll still shows that 35% of respondents still question the fairness of the election.
If we look at the surveys’ cross-tabs, we can see that registered Republicans are not the only ones questioning Biden’s victory. Many independents still cling to this belief.
Other polls, including a recent one conducted by the Washington Post/University of Maryland, confirm these results.
The fact that over 35% of Americans still express doubts about the legitimacy of President Biden's victory in the 2020 election plays a significant role in shaping public perception. This skepticism likely contributes to the challenges President Biden faces in garnering broader support and achieving higher approval ratings. These figures may explain the persistent trend of Biden’s favorability ratings and job approval remaining below the 50% mark for the majority of his presidency.
While Biden accurately characterizes Trump and his supporters as posing a threat to democracy, such assertions alone may not suffice to bolster his chances for reelection. Biden must complement these warnings with a comprehensive strategy that addresses the concerns and aspirations of a diverse electorate. Simply highlighting the threat may not be enough; connecting with voters, addressing their pressing issues, and communicating a compelling vision for the future will be essential components of a successful reelection campaign. Therefore, the Biden campaign must not only energize and mobilize his Democratic supporters. It must also persuade a majority of independents, some of whom may still harbor doubts about his 2020 victory, to rally behind his candidacy.