Biden's Delusional Campaign: Aftermath of a Debate Disaster
The infamous presidential debate and its fallout have been on my mind. Over the past few days, I have been traveling, which allowed me to listen to numerous podcasts, talk with family members, and exchange texts with friends. I have also done a fair amount of reading.
Here are a few thoughts.
Do Presidential Debates Determine the Election Outcome?
Many historians on cable news shows have clarified that debates do not directly drive election outcomes. While a candidate’s debate performance may not predict an election’s result, they do influence voters’ knowledge of the issues and their views of the candidates, ultimately shaping voting intentions.
President Joe Biden’s poor performance has reinforced many voters’ concerns about his age and mental fitness. The debate, along with numerous clips shared on social media and by traditional news outlets, has led some of Biden’s supporters to question his viability. What remains unclear at this point is how undecided voters feel about Biden or former President Donald Trump. In a close race, these voters could determine which nominee wins in November.
Although debates are not predictive, they are important, and dismissing their potential impact is unwise. After all, the Biden campaign pressured Trump to agree to this debate. His advisors aimed to change the race’s dynamics by reassuring voters that Biden had the stamina and mental fitness for another four years. The Biden campaign also hoped that conservative-leaning voters, especially Never Trumpers and Nikki Haley supporters, would reconsider their support for Trump’s candidacy.
Incumbents often lose the first debate but win in November:
One of the Biden campaign’s talking points is that his debate loss is not a significant setback. Former President Barack Obama addressed this sentiment on Twitter (formerly known as X), posting the following:
Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November.
In 2012, Obama lost his first debate to Mitt Romney. While many Democrats were concerned about his chances, he won decisively a few weeks later.
Obama was not the only incumbent to lose his first debate. Trump and George W. Bush did too. One reason is that incumbents are out of practice, having not faced a primary. In contrast, their challengers go through multiple debates to secure their party’s nominations, making them more seasoned debaters.
However, Obama’s situation does not apply to Biden for two reasons. First, Trump had not debated his primary challengers either, with his last debate being against Biden in 2020. Thus, both nominees faced the same challenge. Second, Obama, unlike Biden, was a popular president. Only 38% of Americans approve of Biden’s job performance, whereas Obama’s approval rating never dropped below 47%.
Biden’s unpopularity is a significant factor in his poor performance in public opinion surveys. According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s current numbers are lower than Trump’s at this point in his presidency. As I noted in an earlier post, incumbents with low approval ratings are unlikely to win reelection.
“We are not going to let 90 minutes define the four years that you’ve been president...”
While First Lady Jill Biden made these remarks at a fundraiser, it was Vice President Kamala Harris who first emphasized this point in an interview with Anderson Cooper following the debate.
By most measures, Biden has had a very productive presidency. However, voters are not focusing on the past. They want reassurance that the person they vote for in November will be able to address the nation’s many challenges.
Going into the debate, a poll conducted by Ipsos and commissioned by FiveThirtyEight showed that voters’ main concerns were inflation (50%), immigration (37%), fear of political extremism (25%), and abortion (19%). After the debate, voters believed that Trump would do a better job on the first two issues, while Biden would be better on the latter two. In this respect, the survey found that the debate did not change the dynamics of the race.
A new CBS News poll conducted by YouGov highlights the Biden campaign’s post-debate dilemma. A majority of registered voters believe that they will be “better off” financially if Trump wins in November. More worryingly, despite the Biden campaign’s efforts to portray Trump as a threat to democracy and the rule of law, the poll found that 39% of voters believe a Biden win will safeguard the nation’s democracy and rule of law, while 38% believe a Trump victory will do so.
Biden’s lackluster performance shows that voters have doubts about both the campaign’s message and its messenger.
“I didn’t have a great night, but neither did Trump”
Biden made these remarks in a fundraising event in the East Hamptons after the debate. While media organizations have noted that Trump made more false statements during the debate than Biden, post-debate polls, including a new one commissioned by USA Today, are showing that registered voters believe that Trump won the debate.
To address concerns, the Biden campaign highlighted that its “focus group of undecided independent voters during the debate” responded “more positively to Biden than Trump.” While this is possible, many other focus groups conducted by various cable news networks do not show Biden gaining voter support. For example, Frank Luntz’s focus group, which included undecided voters from battleground states, found that 12 out of 14 participants leaned toward Trump after the debate. Similarly, a Fox News focus group revealed that 10 out of 15 participants moved towards Trump.
It should be noted that Trump is playing to win and is listening to his advisors. He appeared composed and disciplined. While viewers may have been frustrated by his unwillingness to answer many of the moderators’ questions, he effectively linked Biden’s decisions to rising prices, an increase in illegal encounters at the US southern border, and a more unstable world.
New polling will determine whether Biden’s poor performance will help Trump. A post-debate poll conducted by St. Anselm College shows Biden trailing Trump by 2% in New Hampshire, a state that was not in contention before the debate. If this poll is accurate, other “safe” Democratic states, such as Virginia, might also be in play.
Do Editorials Matter?
Following Biden’s controversial debate performance, several prominent publications, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Chicago Tribune, The New Yorker, and The Economist, urged the president to end his presidential campaign. Influential figures like Joe Scarborough, Mika Brzezinski, and Thomas Friedman have echoed these sentiments.
However, in an interview with David Bauder of the Associated Press, Chris Whipple, author of The Fight of His Life: Inside Joe Biden’s White House, argued that these requests will likely have little impact on Biden or his campaign. He stated, “Nothing will make Joe Biden more determined to run for reelection than a New York Times editorial urging him to drop out. It is like oxygen for him.”
Do these opinions matter? Although newspaper editorials are less influential today, the campaign should not ignore these perspectives. For instance, The New York Times’ readership demographics present some significant warning signs. Over 70% of readers have a college degree, and 91% identify as Democrats. Despite being regarded as one of America’s most trustworthy newspapers, about 30% of its readership is between 18-29 years old and another 34% is between 30-49.
What Has to Change?
While Biden’s surrogates admit he had a poor debate, they highlight his strong performance at a rally in North Carolina following the event. Although he appeared more energetic, Biden relied on a teleprompter to deliver his speech. News reports indicate that he also used a teleprompter during various fundraising events this weekend.
As Joe Scaramucci recently noted, reading from a teleprompter does not demonstrate the energy required to campaign or the mental capacity to make tough decisions for another four years. Reports indicate that in past events, audience questions were vetted. This suggests that Biden’s advisors have long been aware of his limitations and have been trying to shield him from potential public scrutiny.
To convince voters that his debate performance was just a blip, Biden must be more transparent with the public. He needs to hold more press conferences and town halls. Engaging directly with journalists and the public and answering unscripted questions would help demonstrate his capability and readiness to handle the demands of the presidency.
If Biden is unwilling or unable to take these steps, it raises serious concerns about his ability to lead. In that case, he should consider stepping down to allow a candidate who can effectively communicate and address the nation’s challenges to take his place. This would ensure that the Democratic Party presents a strong and credible option to voters in the upcoming election.