Is Biden's Approval Rating a Barometer for His Re-election?
President Joe Biden may encounter difficulties securing re-election if tomorrow were election day. While national polls indicate a neck-and-neck race between him and former President Donald Trump, battleground polls suggest an advantage for the Republican candidate. One significant factor contributing to Biden’s current struggles is his low approval ratings. In this post, I analyze his approval ratings, shedding light on their implications for his political future.
The approval rating measures voters’ perceptions of presidents’ job performance. Political science research indicates that a president’s approval ratings can serve as a reliable predictor of re-election outcomes. High approval ratings positively influence down-ballot candidates, increasing the likelihood of the president’s party retaining control of Congress in general elections rather than midterm elections. Furthermore, strong approval ratings give presidents valuable political capital, enabling them to advance their policy agenda effectively.
The graph below illustrates Biden’s approval rating throughout his presidency, using polling data from ABC News and FiveThirtyEight. Employing a LOESS regression, it shows that Biden initially had high approval ratings at the beginning of his term, which turned more negative following his administration’s mishandling of the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan in mid-August 2021.
Today, Biden’s approval according to FiveThirtyEight’s approval tracker is 39%.1 The president’s approval rating reached its nadir at 37.4% on March 12, 2024. This marks the lowest approval rating for any president since 1976.
If certain political scientists assert that a president’s approval rating reliably forecasts election outcomes, what level of concern should be attached to Biden’s currently diminished approval rating? The graph presented below utilizes data compiled by FiveThirtyEight, showcasing the daily approval ratings of past presidents throughout their respective terms in office. This comprehensive dataset enables a comparative analysis between Biden’s current approval rating and those of his predecessors. It highlights the dilemma facing the president. At this juncture in his presidency, Biden’s net approval rating stands at -16%. This figure not only represents the lowest rate observed in over four decades but also raises concerns, as all presidents with negative approval ratings since 1980 have failed to secure re-election.
In conclusion, Biden faces significant challenges in securing re-election. Battleground polls suggest an advantage for his opponent, while his low approval ratings further complicate his political prospects. While past presidents have overcome dips in approval, Biden’s historic low rating signals a formidable obstacle on his path to a second term. As we navigate the complexities of contemporary politics, understanding the dynamics of approval ratings remains crucial for assessing the trajectory of presidential administrations and their electoral futures.
In the graph, because I am using a LOESS regression, rather than a linear one, the current approval rating is 40.3%.