Biden's National Poll Numbers Rise, But Trump Still Holds Lead in Most Battlegrounds
The ongoing rivalry between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump goes beyond mere numbers; it symbolizes a profound battle for the nation’s future. In the 2020 election, Biden held the advantage over Trump in most national polls and most battleground states. However, the narrative has taken a dramatic turn in the past six months, causing concern among many Democrats.
Democratic strategists are urging Biden’s supporters to stay steady, citing evidence suggesting his campaign is gaining traction in the polls. In this post, I delve into the latest national and battleground polls to assess whether the Biden campaign is gaining traction.
Exploring the National Polls
Using the ABC News/538 database of current presidential polls, I have generated three graphs to represent the race visually. These graphs encompass all polls conducted between January 1, 2024, and April 16, 2024. Each graph comprises a scatterplot displaying the predicted support for each candidate in every poll, accompanied by a trend line for each candidate derived from a simple linear regression model.
The initial graph examines the head-to-head competition between Biden and Trump. Biden has significantly closed the gap on Trump’s marginal lead, effectively tying the race.
The second graph illustrates the three-way race by introducing Robert F. Kennedy, an independent candidate, into the analysis. In this scenario, Trump maintains a narrow lead over his main rival. However, as in the previous graph, support for Biden has increased in the last few weeks.
In the final plot, Cornel West, the civil rights activist running as an independent, and Jill Stein, the Green Party’s candidate, are included alongside the existing candidates. Despite the additions, the overall trend remains largely consistent, although Kennedy’s numbers experience a notable decline as survey respondents are presented with new choices.
From these three graphs, the primary conclusion is that the Biden campaign has successfully narrowed Trump’s marginal lead in the polls. However, national polls alone do not provide a comprehensive picture of the race. Ultimately, winning the presidency necessitates securing a minimum of 270 out of the available 538 electoral college votes. Therefore, it is imperative to examine the candidates’ performance in the battleground states, as these will likely play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the November election.
Assessing the Battleground Polls
In the 2020 election, Biden secured a decisive victory by capturing 306 electoral votes, winning key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, all of which had previously supported Trump in 2016. Additionally, the Biden campaign successfully turned the tables in traditionally Republican-leaning Georgia and Arizona, signaling a noteworthy realignment in the electoral landscape.
In this election cycle, the pivotal battleground states include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. A recent Survey USA poll reveals that Trump is trailing Biden by 2 percent in Minnesota, prompting discussions about whether it warrants inclusion in the roster of battleground states.
Based on current state-level polling data, the following map indicates that Biden’s campaign faces significant challenges ahead.
Assuming that the “Solid Trump” states will go to the Republican candidate, Trump is projected to secure 214 electoral college votes. Additionally, his narrow leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and North Carolina contribute another 69 votes, bringing his total to over the necessary 270 electoral votes needed for victory in the election.
Concluding thoughts
It is apparent that while national polls indicate a surge in support for Biden, his route to victory necessitates securing a minimum of 270 electoral college votes. Despite Trump’s resilient performance in numerous battleground states, there are indications of momentum building for the Biden campaign. Biden’s financial advantage and his capacity to campaign extensively, particularly in battleground states, have the potential to bolster his polling numbers further. Moreover, Trump’s legal entanglements and ongoing courtroom proceedings in Manhattan may serve as a distraction from his campaign efforts, presenting Biden with an opportunity to capitalize on the situation and solidify his standing in critical swing states. However, given the fluidity of electoral dynamics, both campaigns must remain vigilant and adaptable as they navigate the remaining 202 days leading up to the election.