Examining Recent Polls: Biden's Prospects Against Trump in November
If the election were held today, polls indicate that former President Donald Trump would probably win, despite facing multiple legal battles and low favorability ratings.
While recent polls may not be predictive at this point, CNN’s Harry Enten recently conducted an analysis emphasizing why the Biden campaign has to adapt its strategy. Enten highlights an intriguing observation: during the 2020 elections, President Joe Biden “didn’t trail Trump in a single national poll that met CNN standards for publication.” Except for Trump’s reelection campaign, this trend is uncommon for incumbent presidents who typically enjoy substantial leads in early polling.
Despite the significance of the popular vote, the outcome of a highly contested election may not always align with the candidate who garners the most votes nationwide. To secure the presidency in the United States, candidates need to obtain a minimum of 270 out of the 538 Electoral College votes. For example, in 2016, Trump won a majority of the Electoral College’s votes, while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by close to 2.9 million votes.
In the 2020 election, Joe Biden secured a decisive victory by capturing 306 electoral votes, winning key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, all of which had previously supported Trump in 2016. Additionally, the Biden campaign successfully turned the tables in traditionally Republican-leaning Georgia and Arizona, signaling a noteworthy realignment in the electoral landscape.
Recent polling from Bloomberg and Morning Consult reveals that Trump is not just leading in national polls but also holds the lead in most of the 2024 battleground states. Based on the polling average from FiveThirtyEight for select states, it becomes evident that if the election were held tomorrow, Trump would likely secure 283 Electoral College votes.
In this hypothetical scenario, the Trump campaign would successfully flip the states of Michigan, Georgia, and Arizona, while also securing victory in Nevada. Meanwhile, Biden would maintain his hold on Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
What factors contribute to Biden’s trailing position in the polls? There are several reasons to consider. For the moment, let’s consider two interrelated challenges. While some analysts highlight the lack of enthusiasm among Democrats, others point to his campaign’s struggles in mobilizing crucial segments of the coalition that secured his win in November 2020.
In a poll conducted last November by The NY Times and Siena College, many African American voters expressed frustration with Biden’s candidacy. CNBC All-American Economic survey yielded similar results, showing a decline in support for Biden among Latino/a voters. A more recent poll by USA Today and Suffolk University corroborates these findings and underscores the growing disillusionment among young voters with the White House’s handling of a range of issues.
As I mentioned in a recent post, the dissatisfaction among Arab and Muslim Americans with the Biden administration’s handling of the Israeli-Gaza conflict is spurring these voters to actively protest against Biden's policies. Remarkably, these individuals constituted some of Biden's most ardent supporters during the 2020 election.
Will these key members of Biden’s 2020 coalition throw their support behind Trump in the upcoming general election? While a portion may indeed shift their allegiance, a considerable number appears inclined to opt for a third-party candidate or abstain from voting altogether. Such potential outcomes present formidable challenges for Biden’s electoral strategy and underscore the complexity of retaining voter loyalty amid shifting political dynamics and evolving issues. As Biden seeks to navigate these intricate waters, his ability to address the concerns and aspirations of these critical constituents will be pivotal in shaping the electoral landscape and determining the outcome of the upcoming election.