My Thoughts on Joe Biden's Disastrous Debate
With 131 days remaining until the election, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump engaged in a debate hosted at a CNN studio in Atlanta, Georgia. Instead of the Commission on Presidential Debates organizing the event, the candidates’ campaign officials negotiated the rules. There was no live audience, and CNN’s moderators, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, served as “questioners” rather than “umpires,” leaving each candidate responsible for fact-checking the other.
Hosting a debate this early in the election cycle was historically unusual. Why did the Biden campaign advocate for this debate? Despite robust fundraising, a sustained media blitz in critical battlegrounds, and slight improvements in national polls, Biden’s campaign sought to alter the race’s dynamics. Despite numerous legal challenges from Trump, Biden was trailing in most crucial battleground states (as I noted here and here).
For Biden and his advisors, the debate aimed to achieve three primary objectives. Firstly, it aimed to reassure voters concerned about Biden’s age and mental sharpness, following his strong delivery of the State of the Union Address which had already assuaged Democrats and silenced retirement calls. Secondly, the debate provided an opportunity to underscore the contrast between Biden’s composure and Trump’s perceived erratic behavior. Thirdly, it allowed Biden a platform to defend his record and advocate for another term.
However, the Biden campaign’s gamble did not pay off. Biden’s performance was lackluster at best. Though he improved towards the debate’s end, the initial 30 minutes were disastrous. Beyond appearing aged, Biden seemed incoherent, undermining claims that his age was not a concern and raising doubts about his mental fitness and campaign effectiveness moving forward. This issue could significantly influence voters’ decisions.
In contrast, Trump, while occasionally losing composure toward the debate’s conclusion and making some below-the-belt attacks, generally remained composed. He projected a youthful and energetic image compared to Biden. Biden’s most concerning moments were not during his responses but rather his reactions to Trump’s remarks, often looking bewildered and avoiding the camera, reinforcing recent social media portrayals of him appearing confused.
Overall, the debate did not unfold as anticipated for Biden, highlighting challenges he may face in the upcoming election.
Trump’s performance barely exceeded a very low bar, marked by a majority of statements riddled with falsehoods or exaggerations. Biden, however, either opted not to fact-check the former president or could not effectively rebut these inaccuracies during the debate. This allowed Trump to emphasize and reinforce his key talking points.
Firstly, Trump argued that the economy during his presidency outperformed the current state of affairs, attributing inflation to policies implemented by the Biden administration. Secondly, he criticized Biden’s immigration policies, highlighting an increase in illegal border crossings since his presidency. Lastly, Trump asserted that global stability was greater during his tenure than it is under current circumstances.
Regrettably, Biden stumbled in defending his record and presenting a compelling case for reelection. His mishandling of a question on abortion was particularly alarming. This debate not only represented a missed opportunity but also raised doubts about his candidacy. Despite Trump’s perceived victory in the debate, it's crucial to recognize that this does not ensure success in November. Moreover, Trump's performance does not diminish concerns about his character flaws or his controversial positions on various issues.
What long-term impact will the debate have on the race? Future public opinion polls will be essential in understanding how voters interpret the candidates’ performances and whether these evaluations will influence their voting preferences. For now, I'll conclude with three key observations.
Firstly, many of Biden’s supporters have attempted to mitigate his poor performance by drawing parallels to Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection, where Obama rebounded despite losing his first debate to Mitt Romney. However, there’s a critical distinction in this historical comparison. Biden currently holds a notably low approval rating of 38.1 percent, as reported by FiveThirtyEight. In contrast, at a comparable point, Obama's approval rating was in the high 40s. As I previously highlighted, presidents with such low approval ratings historically struggle to secure reelection.
Secondly, over the past weeks, Biden has endeavored to broaden his voting coalition by adopting more moderate positions on immigration and the Israel-Gaza crisis, aiming to appeal to independent voters and Never Trump Republicans. However, amidst growing concern within Democratic circles, the Biden campaign may need to pivot and prioritize efforts to reassure its Democratic base instead.
Lastly, despite being only four years younger than Biden, the Trump campaign will center its advertisements on Biden’s age and cognitive sharpness. Unlike the 2020 election, Biden will need to engage extensively in rallies, speeches, and media interviews to secure reelection. The Trump campaign and media outlets are likely to amplify any missteps or verbal slips, putting Biden’s campaign on the defensive and hindering his ability to establish a unified narrative for his reelection bid. This dynamic could sway undecided voters towards Trump or third-party candidates instead of Biden.
The silver lining for the Biden campaign is that it’s only late June, not late October. However, Biden’s dismal debate showing necessitates a strategic shift in his campaign approach. In the coming days, Biden is likely to focus more on shoring up support within his base rather than aggressively critiquing Trump or challenging his policies. This adjustment reflects a recognition of the need to regain momentum and solidify his core support ahead of the critical months leading up to the national Democratic convention in Chicago.