Exploring the Possible Impact of Third-Party Votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
On March 6, 2024, Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and ambassador to the United Nations under former President Donald Trump, announced the suspension of her campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. Following her exit from the race, the media has shifted its focus to the anticipated electoral showdown between Donald Trump and President Joe Biden in the race for the presidency.
In last week’s analysis, I emphasized the likelihood of Trump winning the White House if the election were held tomorrow. I highlighted Biden’s challenges across numerous battleground states. In this follow-up, I shift the focus to national polls, delving into the influence of third-party candidates and their potential impact on Biden’s prospects for reelection.
The Third Party Vote:
The following graph illustrates the trajectory of third-party voting in U.S. presidential elections from 1968 to 2020. It is important to mention that I consolidated all the votes for third parties under the “Others” category for clarity and ease of interpretation. This category encompasses various third-party candidates who have run in presidential elections over the years but may not have gained significant traction or electoral success compared to major-party candidates. This approach allows us to focus on the broader trends and dynamics of third-party voting patterns without getting bogged down in individual candidate details.
Third-party voting has been a subject of debate since 1968 when Alabama Governor George Wallace ran as the candidate of the American Independent Party, amassing over 9 million votes, which accounted for close to 14% of the total vote. In 1992, Ross Perot secured 19% of the vote; however, unlike Wallace, who secured 32 electoral votes, Perot failed to win any electoral votes.
Since the 2000 presidential election, third parties have faced increased scrutiny. Critics point out that these parties have not captured a significant portion of the vote or secured any electoral votes. They argue that in a tight election, third-party candidates could “siphon off enough votes in one state or another to tip the election.” For instance, during the 2000 election, some experts believe that in Florida, Ralph Nader attracted voters “who would otherwise have voted Democratic,” potentially costing Al Gore the election to George W. Bush. A similar argument was made regarding Jill Stein, the Green Party’s candidate in 2016.
Indeed, the impact of third parties on elections is variable and often unpredictable. In some instances, third-party candidates draw votes away from Democratic candidates, while in other cases, they detract from Republican support. The dynamics behind this variability can be influenced by a multitude of factors, including the political climate, the specific issues being debated, and the candidates themselves.
The waning popularity of both Trump and Biden, coupled with increasing dissatisfaction with partisan politics, has fostered an environment conducive to the emergence of multiple alternatives. What impact might third parties have on the forthcoming presidential election? Could these parties shift the balance in favor of Trump or Biden? To address these questions, it is essential to first examine the dynamics between Trump and Biden.
From Two to Multiple Candidates:
The graph below utilizes polling data sourced from ABC News and FiveThirtyEight, encompassing 234 surveys conducted between December 1, 2023, and March 9, 2024. Employing a LOESS regression, it illustrates that Trump has maintained a consistent lead over Biden in head-to-head matchups over the past few months.
One of the most concerning aspects for Biden is the fact that, during the 2020 electoral race against Trump, his adversary never managed to secure a lead in the polls.
In the upcoming presidential election, voters will face choices beyond Trump and Biden, including several third-party candidates. ABC News and FiveThirtyEight’s polling database features 25 polls gauging voter support for Biden, Trump, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Using linear regression model to plot the curves, the graph indicates that Trump is poised to secure a plurality of the vote in this scenario. This is one reason why Democrats are pressuring Kennedy to end his campaign.
In a recent interview, Kennedy affirmed his commitment to staying in the race, although it remains unclear which states will feature him on the ballot. While he asserts that his candidacy attracts support from both Democrats and Republicans, my analysis of polls conducted from January 1, 2024, to March 9, 2024, indicates that Kennedy draws votes from both candidates. However, his impact on Biden’s overall vote share is more notable, as depicted in the graph below.
To compile these statistics, I aggregated the polling data on a weekly basis. Initially, I filtered the polls that included questions assessing respondents’ support for Trump and Biden, as well as those measuring support in a three-way race. I subsequently analyzed Trump’s and Biden’s average support in the head-to-head matchups compared to their average performance in polls that included Kennedy. The graph illustrates the average percentage of the vote that Kennedy captured from the other two candidates. In the last week of February, for instance, Kennedy’s polling numbers approached 10%, siphoning 4% of Biden’s support and 1% from Trump’s.
The picture gets a bit noisy when we add other third-party candidates to the mix. In ABC News and FiveThirtyEight’s polling database, 24 surveys included five candidates.
In this scenario, Trump maintains a slight lead over Biden by approximately 2%, falling well within the margin of error. However, it is important to note that these surveys exclude the Libertarian Party’s nominee, who will be selected in May 2024. The inclusion of this party could potentially diminish Trump’s support at the national level.
Similarly, the surveys do not encompass the candidate from No Labels. Founded in response to the emergence of the Tea Party in 2010, No Labels aims to foster bipartisanship and has opted to field a unity presidential ticket in the forthcoming election. While the organization’s leaders have not disclosed No Labels’ presidential or vice-presidential nominees yet, it seems that one of these positions will be occupied by a Republican, and the other by a Democrat. The potential impact of this option on the election remains uncertain, although Democrats have expressed more skepticism toward this organization compared to Republicans.
The Biden campaign has valid reasons to be apprehensive about the emergence of third-party contenders. For instance, the candidacies of Stein and Cornel West, who is striving to secure ballot access in several states, might allure votes from progressive Democrats and independents disillusioned with the Biden administration’s stance on the Gaza crisis, its failure to enact policing reforms, or its support for expanding oil and gas production. Moreover, West, a respected progressive African American scholar and civil rights activist, could potentially divert some votes from Biden’s African American support base. Additionally, as previously discussed, while Kennedy may resonate with certain Republican or conservative-leaning independents, the data suggests that his candidacy predominantly affects Biden’s voter base.
Concluding Thoughts:
Might third parties jeopardize Biden’s chances of reelection and secure a Trump victory? As we await the unfolding dynamics involving No Labels and the Libertarian Party in the upcoming presidential election, it is crucial to highlight that Biden trails behind Trump in both head-to-head matchups as well as multiple scenarios including different combinations of third-party candidates. Also, the growing appeal of third-party candidates is the direct consequence of Biden’s and Trump’s unpopularity and voters’ frustration with bipartisanship in Washington.
Despite the potential for third parties to influence election outcomes, they remain a crucial aspect of our democratic system. Beyond simply contesting elections, third parties often serve as platforms for alternative viewpoints and policy proposals that may not be adequately represented by the major parties. This dynamic compels both Democrats and Republicans to consider the appeal of third-party platforms and to strategize accordingly to mitigate the risk of losing votes to these alternative candidates.
I will revisit this matter in due time. Currently, all the scenarios examined underscore the importance for the Biden campaign to reaffirm its coalition, which encompasses voters contemplating support for third-party candidates. Biden’s recent State of the Union address, outlining his vision for a second term and critiquing Trump’s candidacy, marks a positive step. Now, we await to observe whether Biden’s proposals and warnings have resonated with the electorate and influenced their perspectives on these third parties.