The Road to the White House Goes Through Michigan
An Analysis of the Results of Michigan's Democratic and Republican Primaries
In the early hours of November 6, 2024, the atmosphere in Wilmington, Delaware is somber, while tension fills the air at Mar-a-Lago as Donald Trump’s campaign officials anxiously await confirmation of their internal forecasts. Despite losses in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, the Biden campaign managed narrow victories in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. However, the race in Michigan remains fiercely contested, with polling stations in Wayne County gradually reporting their vote counts. President Biden trails by 65,000 votes in Michigan, leaving his closest advisers grappling with the slim possibility of closing Trump’s lead and debating whether the president should concede the election or request a recount.
Could this scenario unfold? The more I contemplate the upcoming presidential election and scrutinize the latest polling data, the more I am persuaded that Michigan could be the pivotal factor in determining each candidate’s path to victory. Let’s examine the following data.
According to RealClearPolitics’ averages for this year’s battleground states, Biden trails in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Michigan. Additionally, he lags in Wisconsin and maintains a slight lead in Pennsylvania, albeit within the margin of error. These polling trends have remained consistent over the past few weeks.
Let us assume, the following scenario:
Maine and Nebraska allocate their electoral college votes proportionally. Based on historical election outcomes, Biden claims one of Nebraska’s votes, while Trump secures one of Maine’s.
Trump secures victories in Arizona and Georgia, states he lost by margins of less than 15,000 votes, and historically lean Republican. He also clinches Nevada, which has been trending Republican and was won by Biden with a margin of less than 35,000 votes.
Biden narrowly secures a victory in Wisconsin and enjoys a comfortable win in Pennsylvania, where Democrats have performed strongly in both state-level and federal races over the past three years.
Trump wins North Carolina, replicating his wins in the state during both the 2016 and 2020 elections.
What about Michigan? If Trump manages to flip Michigan, he would secure the presidency with 283 electoral college votes compared to Biden’s 255. Conversely, if Biden successfully defends the state, he would narrowly win with 270 electoral votes to Trump’s 268.
Given the current polling data at both the national and state levels, this scenario appears to be feasible, reaffirming Michigan’s importance in the upcoming election.
Considering this, let us examine the outcomes of Michigan’s Democratic and Republican primaries held on February 27, 2024. Various media channels, including CNN, NPR, and The New York Times, characterized the results as having both positive and negative implications for both candidates.
Before delving into the results for each candidate, it is crucial to acknowledge that Michigan’s Democratic and Republican primaries are open contests, enabling voters, irrespective of party registration, to participate in the primary of their preference.
As illustrated in the graph, voter turnout in the Republican primary dropped by 213,211 votes compared to 2016. Conversely, although turnout lagged behind both the 2016 and 2020 Democratic primaries, the number of primary-goers surpassed that of 2012, marking the last time when an incumbent Democratic president was up for reelection.
The Implications for Biden:
The Biden campaign expressed satisfaction with the turnout exceeding expectations. However, despite the President securing 81.1% of the vote, this proportion was lower than Obama’s 89.3% in 2012. Of greater concern, Michigan primary voters had the opportunity to select "uncommitted" as an option. This year, a coalition of Arab and Muslim American leaders urged Democratic voters to choose “uncommitted” as a form of protest against the Biden administration’s backing of Israel and its unwillingness to support a lasting ceasefire in Gaza.
The “uncommitted” vote garnered over 100,000 votes, representing 13% of the vote. While the major news networks did not administer an exit poll, the Council on American-Islamic Relations conducted an exit poll of 527 Muslim Michigan voters. While the organization’s press release did not include the poll’s margin of error, it found that 94.4% of respondents voted “uncommitted”.
The survey also asked respondents about respondents’ voting preferences for the forthcoming election.
Unsurprisingly, just 8% of respondents indicated their intention to vote for Biden, whereas 13% expressed support for Trump. A notable proportion favored various third-party candidates, with Cornel West notably garnering 25% of support.
As I mentioned in a previous post, Biden’s triumph in Michigan in 2020 was partially propelled by the substantial turnout of Arab and Muslim American voters who opposed Trump’s bid for reelection. Comprising 2% of the state’s population, these voters become crucial, particularly in the event of a close race, as indicated by most polls.
Could Arab and Muslim Americans cost Biden the election? There is no straightforward answer. While some analysts contend that Biden can secure victory without relying on these votes, others, including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, emphasize that many Arab and Muslim voters may ultimately choose to support Biden as a strategic move to prevent Trump from winning.
The Implications for Trump:
In the Republican primary, Trump secured 68.2% of the vote. As previously mentioned, the turnout was lower than in 2016, which prompts inquiries into the extent of his support or the enthusiasm among conservative voters. Numerous analysts contend that the Trump campaign may face challenges in persuading Nikki Haley’s supporters to endorse him in November.
As mentioned earlier, Michigan implements an open primary system, enabling independents and Democrats to partake in the Republican contest. Due to the lack of exit polls, deciphering the composition of Haley’s supporters in terms of registered Republicans or Democrats proves challenging. With a limited number of public opinion surveys conducted before the contest, forecasting which Haley voters might abstain from supporting Trump in the presidential election becomes a complex task.
In addition, compared to South Carolina and New Hampshire, where Haley won several counties with high numbers of urban and suburban residents, in Michigan she failed to win a single county. Trump’s strength in Michigan’s Macomb County, long considered a bellwether, shows his broad appeal with the state’s blue-collar workers.
While these are significant factors to consider, it’s essential to recognize that primaries tend to be divisive. Before broadening their voter base, presidential campaigns must first solidify support within their party. In 2016, analysts expressed concerns that Hillary Clinton would struggle to attract Bernie Sanders’ supporters, and many argued that Trump would face challenges in winning over John Kasich’s more moderate backers. While there were instances of some Sanders voters backing Trump and other candidates, their impact was minimal. Likewise, Trump managed to unify the Republican party after securing the nomination.
Analyzing Michigan’s electoral dynamics, Trump clinched victory in 2016 with 2,649,543 votes. While Biden emerged victorious in the state by a margin of roughly 154,000 votes in 2020, it is noteworthy that Trump amassed an additional 370,000 votes compared to his 2016 tally. This suggests that despite perceived challenges in 2020, Trump’s campaign effectively broadened his support base within Michigan. This expansion signals Trump’s enduring appeal and organizational strength within the state's political landscape.
Concluding thoughts:
The road to the White House goes through Michigan. At this juncture, Trump’s prospects in the Wolverine State appear more favorable compared to Biden’s. While the former president’s vulnerabilities among suburban and moderate voters may pose challenges for him in the November election, the escalating discontent regarding Biden’s stance on Israel presents a more pressing concern. As previously highlighted, while Arab and Muslim American voters constitute a small minority in the United States, their reluctance to support Biden’s candidacy could significantly tighten the race not only in Michigan but also in pivotal states like Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. Additionally, young and African American voters have voiced frustration with Biden’s Gaza policy. It seems evident that Biden’s coalition is experiencing internal strain, while Trump is solidifying his Republican base and attracting support from independents, as indicated by numerous national and state polls.