Who Will Succeed Pope Francis? A Data-Driven Analysis of the Leading Papal Contenders

The conclave to elect Pope Francis’s successor will begin on May 7, 2025. Who will emerge as the next pope? As an old Roman saying goes, “He who enters the conclave a pope, leaves a cardinal.” Predicting the outcome is notoriously difficult—but not beyond the reach of careful analysis.

In a previous post, I explored how the conclave operates and examined the changing demographics of the College of Cardinals, the majority of whom were appointed by Francis himself. These electors—diverse in age, geography, religious orders, and institutional roles—embody the Church’s shifting global profile.

This post turns from process to people: the individuals most plausibly in line to become the next pope. While journalists and betting markets have spotlighted prominent names such as Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle, a closer look reveals that the true picture is more nuanced. These men are influential, but the dynamics of the conclave demand more than prominence.

By drawing on historical precedent, canonical constraints, and the current composition of the College, this analysis offers a structured and evidence-based approach to identifying the leading contenders. The result is a clearer sense of which cardinals are most realistically positioned to assume the papacy, and what their election might signal about the future direction of the Catholic Church.

Who are the leading contenders?

In recent weeks, multiple news outlets¹ have been covering the leading candidates to succeed Pope Francis in the upcoming papal conclave. As speculation grows regarding the next pope, various cardinals have emerged as potential contenders, each with unique backgrounds and qualifications. The table below highlights some of these top candidates, providing key details such as their age, nationality, the pope who appointed them as cardinals, and their rank within the College of Cardinals. This information offers insight into the profiles of those most likely to play a pivotal role in the election of the next pontiff.

Betting markets have also weighed in on the favorites to succeed Pope Francis, with odds being offered by multiple sources. The following table lists the top cardinals from four major betting platforms. These websites provide an interesting perspective on who the public believes is most likely to ascend to the role of pope in the upcoming conclave.

Journalists and participants in these betting markets largely align in their predictions, with two main contenders standing out as frontrunners. Pietro Parolin, an Italian Cardinal Bishop, served as the Vatican’s Secretary of State, overseeing its foreign policy and global diplomatic relations. He has long been regarded as a key figure in the papacy’s political strategy.

Luis Antonio Tagle, another prominent cardinal, previously served as the Metropolitan Archbishop of Manila before being appointed by Pope Francis as one of the pro-prefects in the Dicastery for Evangelization. Tagle’s role in the Vatican’s outreach and evangelization efforts has further strengthened his standing as a leading candidate. Both Parolin and Tagle were deeply connected to Pope Francis, which adds a layer of significance to their potential succession.

While speculation from journalists and betting markets provides a snapshot of public and media expectations, it is worth taking a more systematic approach to identifying realistic contenders for the papacy. Historical patterns, institutional norms, and the demographics of the current College of Cardinals can help us refine the list significantly.

Narrowing Down the Field of Cardinals

If history is any guide, I estimate that 36 cardinals stand a realistic chance of becoming the next pope.² How did I arrive at that number? My analysis is based on eight key assumptions:

1. The next pope will be in the conclave. As outlined in my previous post, only cardinals under the age of 80 may vote in a conclave. Of the 252 current members of the College of Cardinals, 135 are eligible to vote, though two are expected to be absent due to health concerns. Since the 1522 election of Pope Adrian VI, every pope has participated in the conclave that elected him.³ This makes it highly likely that the next pope will be one of the 133 cardinals expected to cast a vote.

2. Cardinal Deacons are unlikely to be chosen. Cardinals are divided into three ranks: Cardinal Bishops, Cardinal Priests, and Cardinal Deacons. Of the 15 popes elected since 1823, 12 were Cardinal Priests and 3 were Cardinal Bishops. Cardinal Deacons—typically the most junior and least experienced in major leadership roles—have rarely been considered papabile. The upcoming conclave includes 21 Cardinal Deacons. Removing them leaves 113 serious contenders.

3. Most popes do not come from religious orders. Since 1823, only two popes—Gregory XVI (a Camaldolese) and Francis (a Jesuit)—have come from religious orders. While not disqualifying, this affiliation has historically reduced a cardinal’s chances. Among the current electors, 28 Cardinal Priests and one Cardinal Bishop are members of religious orders, including three Jesuits. Given the low probability of electing another Jesuit, we can reasonably exclude these three cardinals, bringing the pool to 110.

4. Youth may work against a candidate. The long reign of John Paul II has made many cardinals cautious about choosing someone too young. The average age of current electors is 70. Although the average age of elected popes in the 20th century was 68, both Benedict XVI and Francis were chosen in their late 70s. Reflecting this preference for experience, excluding those aged 64 and younger reduces the field to 85 contenders.

5. Emeritus cardinals are rarely chosen. Although under-80 cardinals may vote, those who have already retired from active leadership—emeritus cardinals—are seldom elected. There are 25 emeritus cardinals in this conclave. Excluding them brings the number down to 61.

6. Nationality plays a role. Historically, most popes have been European, with Italians dominating for centuries. Although Pope Francis—born in Argentina—broke that pattern, his Italian heritage likely helped ease his election. It is unlikely the conclave will choose another Latin American pope so soon. Excluding the 16 Latin American cardinal electors narrows the pool to 45.

7. Eastern Rite leaders are technically eligible, but rarely considered. Catholicism includes both the Latin Church, based in the Vatican, and the Eastern Rite Catholic Churches. Leaders of these churches who are under 80 may vote in the conclave and are technically eligible to be elected pope, though history suggests this is improbable. Currently, three Eastern Rite leaders are eligible to vote, representing the Syro-Malankara Church, the Chaldean Catholic Church, and the Ethiopian Catholic Church. Excluding them brings the number down to 42.

8. An American pope remains unlikely. This list can be narrowed even further by considering geopolitical realities. Would the cardinal electors truly support an American as the next pope? Given the Vatican’s long-standing caution about aligning too closely with any global superpower, particularly one with such a dominant cultural and political footprint, an American pontiff remains improbable. One name that occasionally surfaces is Cardinal Robert Prevost, an American who currently serves as Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops. His Vatican leadership role gives him visibility and influence, but his nationality could still be a significant obstacle in the eyes of many electors.

The next table lists the 36 cardinals most likely to succeed Pope Francis based on these eight assumptions.

Notably, this list does not include Cardinals Pierbattista Pizzaballa or José Tolentino de Mendonça, primarily due to their relatively young age (see the first table for details). If their current trajectories continue, either could be a strong contender in a future conclave, but likely not this one. I have also excluded Cardinals Robert Sarah and Mario Grech. Sarah, a prominent figure among conservative cardinals, retired in 2021 and is no longer in active leadership. Despite serving as Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops and playing a key role in advancing Pope Francis’s vision for the Church, Grech holds the rank of Cardinal Deacon—historically a category less likely to produce a pope.

One of Pope Francis’s most significant contributions to the Church has been his decision to shift greater influence to cardinals from the Global South, where Catholicism is expanding most rapidly. Although 52% of the top papal contenders on my list come from the Global North, the majority of Global South cardinals were appointed by Francis. This does not necessarily mean they share his ideological views. Still, by elevating voices from outside Europe and North America, Francis has compelled the Church to engage more directly with issues that resonate in regions historically marginalized by the Global North.

As the cardinals prepare to enter the Sistine Chapel, the conclave’s veil of secrecy serves not only to protect the sanctity of the proceedings but also to obscure the underlying tensions shaping this momentous decision. While speculation often focuses on personalities, this election is fundamentally about direction: whether the Church will consolidate the reforms of Pope Francis or begin a reorientation. Ideological, geographic, and generational divisions within the College of Cardinals suggest that this conclave will function as an implicit referendum on Francis’s papacy—one that could either reaffirm his vision or chart a more traditionalist course.

Conclusion

The upcoming election of a new pope stands as a defining moment for the Catholic Church. Beyond the public speculation and betting markets, I found that, based on historical precedent and the structure of ecclesiastical norms, 36 cardinals are realistically positioned to emerge as the next pope. This group, shaped by the appointments and vision of Pope Francis, reflects the Church’s ongoing negotiation between continuity and change. Figures like Parolin and Tagle may appear especially well-positioned, but the outcome will depend on how the conclave manages deep internal divisions and competing theological priorities. In the end, this conclave will not just select a new spiritual leader. It will also send a message about how the Church plans to respond to a rapidly changing world.

1. These include Al Jazeera, CNN, BBC, CBS News, Euronews, The Independent, PBS, National Catholic Register, The New York Times & USA Today.

2. I compiled the dataset by aggregating information from multiple sources. The initial list of current cardinals was scraped from the Wikipedia page titled “List of current cardinals.” To verify the accuracy and completeness of this list, I cross-checked the information against two authoritative sources: Catholic-Hierarchy.org, a widely used database that provides up-to-date records on the global Catholic hierarchy, and the Vatican Press Office, which offers official biographies and announcements regarding members of the College of Cardinals. These additional sources helped confirm details such as each cardinal’s current status, rank, country of residence, age, and the appointing pope. Any inconsistencies were resolved through manual verification.

3. See, Catholic-Hierarchy’s information on the Conclave of 1521-1522.